中德經貿關係可能正從互補轉向結構性競爭，巴爾金之前的報告指出，中國企業在機械、發電設備領域已領先德國，在乘用車與化工領域即將超越德國，背後是德國每月流失約1萬製造業職位，裁員規模超過新冠疫情或全球金融危機，這不僅是短期經濟波動，而是中國從「夥伴」轉為「直接競爭者」的結構性轉變，德國製造業正面臨「中國衝擊2.0」。《經濟學人》形容，德國正從「愛上中國」轉向「恐慌模式」，默茨訪華正值此轉折點，柏林如何在經濟依賴與戰略自主間尋找新平衡是很急切的問題。
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